The project focuses on the analysis of physical changes in the countryside and their relationship to land use and landscape oriented policies. A method will be developed to represent different possible developments of the cultural landscape in Denmark. These scenarios will focus on sustainable land use that considers not only nature conservation and environmental preservation, but has regard to the conservation of our cultural heritage, too. As the method for landscape scenarios is only inadequately developed a gradual approach will be adopted in order to establish the interdisciplinary method. The project will include results from cultural landscape research carried out in Norway, Sweden, Finland, Germany and Austria.

Purpose

The strategic aim is to improve and qualify the relevant political processes as well as the public debate regarding environment and land use policies by developing insights and methods for the assessment of future development. Taking as its starting point the present condition for a typical rural landscape in Denmark, the research will analyse implications of different landscape scenarios, encompassing

• Determination of the relevant scenario dimensions (social and natural sciences)
• Development of an applicable scenario method and
• Analysis of relevant aspects of the legal, economic and political framework

Research Performance and Co-operation

Four sub-projects will be carried out with participants from two universities, Den Kgl. Veterinær- og Landbohøjskole (The Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University) and Aalborg Universitets Center (Aalborg University) as well as two sector research institutions, Forskningscentret for Skov & Landskab (Danish Forest and Landscape Research Institute) and Danmarks JordbrugsForskning (Danish Institute of Plant and Soil Science, Dept. of Land Use). The interdisciplinary co-operation will be established by joint work periods.

Joint working periods. Several common working periods are planned (see table p.18). Each period is commenced by a workshop where the current progress of research is related and new work phases initiated. Joint working periods dedicated to the development of basic common ideas should start with a brainstorm-like meeting where ideas, information and thoughts are exchanged. External experts will be invited to these meetings.

Results of these workshops are succeeded by ad hoc work groups or through co-ordination of on-going research. Joint work periods of elementary importance (development of scenario structure, for example) are concluded by one-day workshops, where all participants meet again. This approach improves the basis for collective research.

Association with Boundaries in the Landscape. The project is associated with another project entitled "Boundaries in the Landscape" (1995-2000), focusing on the significance of physical, biological and normative boundaries for bio-diversity and landscape structure. These features are seen in relation to human productive and recreational use of nature. Research concentrates on the area of Bjerringbro and Hvorslev municipalities, covering 156 square kilometres. The landscape presents a variety with structures and land typical of the Danish cultural landscape. The scenario project also focuses on the Bjerringbro-Hvorslev area in order to establish the scenario technique.

As some of the participants in the project are also engaged in "Boundaries in the Landscape", the results generated by "Boundaries in the Landscape" can be utilised to develop scenarios for the cultural landscape in Denmark. Without this association of projects it would probably not be possible to create a sufficient basis for the scenarios.

Integration with other projects within the centre. A geographical integration will be established, as the development of the methods will take place in the Bjerringbro-Hvorslev area. This district is one of the regional examination localities designated by the centre, where, for example, both archaeological and historical investigation is conducted. An application of the method including an up-scaling will take place in the common investigation regions of East Jutland and Northern Funen.

The professional integration will be established by regular exchange of information with the other projects included in the centre. Particularly with the project on biological significance of nature quality in terrestrial eco-systems (Jesper Fredshavn) and the cultural history sub-projects regarding regional models for the cultural landscape (Ulf Näsman) and the relationship of modern agriculture with elements and structures in the cultural landscape (Per Grau Møller).

Methodologies for and Development of Landscape Scenarios

Head of Project: Kjell Nilsson, The Danish Forest and
Landscape Research Institute, Hørsholm Kongevej
11, DK-2970 Hørsholm, Ph. +45 76 32 00,
kjn@fsl.dk

Participants: Andreas Höll, The Danish Forest and
Landscape Research Institute, Hørsholm Kongevej 11,
DK-2970 Hørsholm, Ph. +45 76 32 00,
anh@fsl.dk

Erling Andersen, The Danish Forest
and Landscape Research Institute, Hørsholm Kongevej
11, DK-2970 Hørsholm, Ph. +45 76 32 00,
era@fsl.dk

The sub-project will be located at The Danish Forest and Landscape Research Institute (DFLRI), which also co-ordinates the activities of the project. The sub-project represents the "scientific motor" of the scenario process. Its function is to implement and co-ordinate the interdisciplinary work. Due to the poorly developed methodology in the field of landscape scenarios, the main scientific focus of this project lies with a development of methods for scenarios. These landscape assessments will take into account the interests of agriculture in land use as well as the management of cultural history remains in the landscape and the aspect of nature quality. The socio-economic scenario dimension will be studied thoroughly within the project (for example, development patterns in the workshop area, political framework conditions and the economic consequences of the scenarios). Data sources originating from "Boundaries in the Landscape" as well as other places will be utilised for this work.

The stepwise development of necessary methods through collective work ensures optimal participation by all researchers resulting in the best possible interdisciplinary approach to the topic.

Land Use Scenarios: models and methods for scaling-up

Head of project: Ole H. Caspersen, Danish Institute of
Agricultural Sciences, Department of Agricultural
Systems, Postbox 50, DK-8830 Tjele, Ph. +45 89 99 18 13,
OleH.Capsersen @agrsci.dk Participants: Tommy Dalgaard,
Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences,
Department of Agricultural Systems, Postbox 50, DK-8830
Tjele, Ph. +45 89 99 18 13,
Tommy.Dalgaard@agrsci.dk Poul E. Larsen, Danish
Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Department of
Agricultural Systems, Postbox 50, DK-8830 Tjele, Ph. +45
89 99 16 01,
PoulE.Larsen@agrsci.dk

Present land use planning is often based on a top-down approach using regional and national statistics, due to lack of detailed data. This project aims to develop methods for site-specific bottom-up models of land use, in a GIS (Geographical Information System) environment. The development of the method will be based on a regional set of data. The method will make it possible to generate regions based on functional rather than administrative borders. The method will, in co-operation with other sub-projects, be developed to include agricultural, socio-economic and landscape-ecological data. National agricultural registers, digital orto-photos, soil classification and topographic maps will be used as inputs for the models. Methods for setting criteria for agricultural regions will be developed using data from study-farms and will be applied to the regional sets of data. A comprehensive set of data covering Bjerringbro and Hvorslev municipalities generated in the project "Boundaries in the Landscape" will be extended and used for validation. Knowledge from this project will contribute to the development of The Integrated Transect Method for use in GIS (Geographical Information System).

Computer-Based 3D-Visualisation for Landscape Scenarios

Participants: Hans Skov-Petersen, Forskningscentret for
Skov & Landskab, (Danish Forest and Landscape
Research Institute), Hørsholm Kongevej 11, DK-2970
Hørsholm, Ph. +45 45 76 32 00,
hsp@fsl.dk

Ian Jørgensen, Den kgl. Veterinær- og
Landbohøjskole, (Royal Veterinary and Agricultural
University, Institute for Economy, Forestry and
Landscape), Rolighedsvej 23,2, DK-1958 Frederiksberg C,
Ph. +45 35 28 22 50,
iajo@kvl.dk, http://www.landskab.kvl.dk/~iajo/forsknin.html

PhD-student, Troels Degn Johansson, The Danish Forest and
Landscape Research Institute, Hørsholm Kongevej 11,
DK-2970 Hørsholm, Ph. +45 45 76 32 00, Fax 45 76 32
33, e-mail
tdj@fsl.dk

3D visualisation, both as still and live pictures, has hitherto been used for presentation of single constructions such as bridges, tunnels etc. The technique has only in a few cases been used in the context of physical planning and public address. The project will address the usage of computer-based 3D visualisation for aesthetic assessments of changes in the landscape. The identification of key elements for human conception of the landscape and its character forms the first step in the examination, followed by the transformation to visual simulation.

A second scientific focus of the project lies with the role 3D-visualisation has as a communication tool between planners, decision-makers and the public in the physical planning process. A framework for possible future requirements of interactive 3D-models for certain new constructions or landscape changes will be discussed. It is important to evaluate how the various presentation options, e.g. still versus moving pictures, photo-realistic versus symbolic presentations etc influence the perception of the audience targeted.

Landscape and Ownership Structures

Head of project: Esben Munk Sørensen, Aalborg
University, Dept. of Economics, Politics and Public
Administration, Fibigerstræde 11, DK-9220
Ålborg SØ, Ph. +45 96 35 80 80,
ems@i4.auc.dk

 Participant: Jan Staunstrup, Aalborg University,
Dept. of Economics, Politics and Public Administration,
Fibigerstræde 11, DK-9220 Ålborg SØ,
Ph. +45 96 35 80 80,
jks@i4.auc.dk

Property structures determinate land use mainly due to the rights assigned to the landowner. Even though this may set certain limits for the owner, there is still wide scope for decisions regarding the land including rights to purchase or to sell. Ownership changes are mainly driven by socio-economic factors, and changes in land registration between properties create the framework for landscape development. These changes are influenced by various forms of public control and it is useful to be able to control these in coherent processes. The sub-project focuses on the development of management tools for monitoring the processes of change. Towards this end a model for analysis is developed in support of a visualisation of landscape scenarios. The model will bridge the gap between real-time characteristics of ownership patterns and indications of agricultural structures as well as the environment. The model will also show the connection to other spatial structures, such as elevation and soil.

Milestones

1997-1998:

• Scenario technique: review of methods; summarise the international experience of relevant scenarios
• Criteria for a classification of farm types and establishment of agricultural set of data for Bjerringbro-Hvorslev municipalities and the county of Viborg
• State of the art 3D presentation techniques in the context of physical planning processes and communication

1999:

• Use of the scenario method for Bjerringbro-Hvorslev area and visualising of the results
• The scenario method and visualising technique is evaluated

 

2000:

• Scenarios at regional and national levels are developed in order to test the potential of the cultural landscape with regard to nature quality, cultural history, production and recreational aspects
• Presentation of results in a final report discussing critically the reliability of the scenarios